Why UK food prices are rising again despite falling inflation in 2025
Headline inflation has fallen, but UK grocery prices have started to climb again. Farmers face high input costs, extreme weather is cutting harvest yields, and supermarket competition is changing — all pushing food prices back up.
After months of easing inflation, UK households are noticing food prices creeping up again in late 2025. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirms that food inflation ticked higher over the summer, despite overall consumer prices stabilising. Behind this reversal are weather shocks, global commodity disruptions, and persistent supply chain costs that show how fragile the food economy remains.
The data behind the increase
According to the ONS Consumer Prices Index (CPI), annual food and non-alcoholic drink inflation rose from 4.6% in June 2025 to 5.3% in September 2025, ending nine months of decline.
Source: ONS – Consumer price inflation September 2025
While this is far below the double-digit rates of 2023, it remains one of the fastest-rising categories within the CPI basket. The biggest increases were seen in fruit, dairy, and bakery goods.
What’s driving the new surge
1. Poor harvests in Europe and the UK
The Met Office and National Farmers’ Union (NFU) report that heavy spring rainfall followed by a dry, hot summer reduced wheat and barley yields by around 12% compared to 2024. Vegetable crops also suffered from flooding earlier in the year.
Sources:
The reduced domestic harvest has forced supermarkets to import more, exposing prices to volatile global commodity markets.
2. Higher import and logistics costs
Global shipping costs have surged again after tensions in the Red Sea and strikes at European ports disrupted trade routes in mid-2025. The Drewry World Container Index shows average container rates from Asia to Northern Europe up 21% year-on-year in October 2025.
Source: Drewry – World Container Index October 2025
UK importers say the weaker pound — trading around $1.20 in November 2025, down from $1.28 earlier in the year — has made imported food ingredients more expensive.
Source: Bank of England – Spot exchange rates November 2025
3. Energy and packaging costs still elevated
Although energy prices have fallen sharply from their 2022 peaks, they remain roughly 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to Ofgem. Food manufacturing and packaging are among the most energy-intensive industries, and energy surcharges are still baked into supplier contracts signed during the crisis.
Source: Ofgem – Business energy price trends 2025
4. Supermarket price competition changing
After years of “price matching” to Aldi and Lidl, major UK supermarkets are rebalancing. Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Asda have quietly phased out some promotions to protect profit margins. Industry analysts from Kantar note that branded food inflation is rising faster than supermarket “own-label” goods.
Source: Kantar – Grocery Market Share October 2025
The impact on households
The Resolution Foundation estimates that the average UK household is spending £880 more per year on groceries than before the pandemic. Low-income families, who spend a larger share of their income on food, remain hardest hit.
Source: Resolution Foundation – Cost of living tracker Autumn 2025
Charity Trussell Trust reported a 9% year-on-year increase in food bank demand between April and September 2025, marking a record high for the organisation.
Source: Trussell Trust – Mid-year food bank statistics 2025
Can prices come down again
Economists say the near-term outlook depends on global weather and commodity markets. The FAO Food Price Index rose for three consecutive months to September 2025, driven by sugar and cereal prices. Analysts warn that another poor southern hemisphere harvest could keep global food inflation elevated into 2026.
Source: FAO – World Food Price Index September 2025
At home, farmers say more investment in UK food security — from grain storage to resilient irrigation systems — is essential to reduce reliance on volatile imports.
Source: DEFRA – UK Food Security Report 2025
The bottom line
Falling inflation does not mean falling prices. Food remains one of the most stubborn components of the cost of living, and 2025 shows that global shocks can still push prices higher even after the crisis has cooled. For most households, that means another winter of tight grocery budgets — and a reminder that economic stability on paper does not always match what people feel at the till.
References:
- ONS – Consumer price inflation September 2025
- Met Office – UK climate and farming impact report 2025
- NFU – Harvest survey 2025
- Drewry – World Container Index October 2025
- Bank of England – Spot exchange rates November 2025
- Ofgem – Business energy price trends 2025
- Kantar – Grocery Market Share October 2025
- Resolution Foundation – Cost of living tracker Autumn 2025
- Trussell Trust – Mid-year food bank statistics 2025
- FAO – World Food Price Index September 2025
- DEFRA – UK Food Security Report 2025
